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Theses


August 9, 2017

Kim's Gambit or Faux Pas

North Korea's Chairman Kim Jong-un has been playing the missile game rather well. However, his recent drive to single out the US as adversary has its pros and cons. Now South Korea and Japan will not ask for US's restraint, whereas President Trump gets a free hand in embarking on an armed attack on North Korea.

However, be careful. If such a strike does not paralyze the command line, North Korea will surely retaliate by its conventional artillery; the target is Seoul.

If the attack succeeds in decapitating the country, then the vacuum will be filled by South Korean and Chinese armed forces. They may collide with each other, and the outcome becomes unpredictable.

Japan will not take part. And I personally have a feeling that the US will start negotiation with North Korea. And eventual outcome will be conclusion of a peace treaty for the Korean War, withdrawal of the American troops from South Korea and gradual reunification of both Koreas.

It would generate a big power with economy larger than Russia and with ICBMs and IRBMs. Then Japan will be surrounded by four nuclear powers: the US, Russia, China and Korea. But is there any large difference between three up to now and four in future?

Comment

Author: Tofa Tula | August 16, 2017 9:14 AM

This is the type of blanced analysis that I miss in most other publications readily available mostly emphasizing sensationalistic and dramatic scenarios. I just hope that nobody with decision power in the US will in some peculiar twist of mind see longterm economic befit in a military option.

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