The Medvedev-Putin tandem has been inaugurated in Russia. It marks another turning point in their history. Inside, we are to see whether Russia will go back to the old Soviet style society in spite of all official talks about building a civic society. Outside, we are still to watch whether the current Russian posture of “aggressive defense” might eventually rouse the Russophobia in the United States and incur a new cold war.

　　Inside, it is the Russian people themselves who support the current tighter control on the society, giving preference to order than to a democracy a-la-West. Therefore, if the West antagonizes the Russian government because of the lack of democratization, it will antagonize the majority of the Russian people, and the West will not be able to achieve the goal: democratization of Russia. We have to let the Russian people decide.

The current policy for modernization of the economy by the Russian leadership may not have a success due to the bureaucratic, formalistic and irresponsible approach, the incurable malaise in their system . Besides, Russia is going to have a severe inflation mainly because of the growing inflow of oil money.

The whole situation in today’s Russia shows a bizarre resemblance to France after the Revolution in 1789: first chaos and then establishment of order with patriotism under Napoleon. In July 1830 the inflation caused national unrest in France, which prompted a power take-over by oligarchic capitalists.

Outside, the Russian leadership does not want a confrontation with the West. They know that their military industry would need an ample injection for recovery and that this will be fatal for their power. Because it will deprive the economy of the resources for modernization, and, what is more, the Russian people will never allow their country to go back to a war economy. They are already accustomed to a society of consumption.

Putin’s Russia became very self-assertive, but the thing is that it only came out of its temper, when it saw that the West does not treat Russia as a friend (they never realize that the general lack of the civic morals on the part of the majority of the Russians lead to this tragedy) and that the NATO was enlarged to ex-components of the Soviet Union.

Russia badly needs the Western modern technology and management know-how to modernize their economy. Europe also prefers an entente with Russia, fearing an increase in defense burden and instability in the supply of natural gas and oil from Russia. However, the USA is not much dependent on Russia. Its new leader or social opinion might sway toward recurrence of the cold war. Its military industry may well support it especially after reduction of the military operation in Iraq.

Nevertheless, Russia will safely occupy 4th or 5th place in the world economy by 2020, largely due to the appreciation of the ruble, the value of which is firmly based upon oil and gas . This means that we all have to seriously reckon with Russia, although inside Russia people will be suffering from unfoundedly high prices, and the seemingly large size of GDP will not necessarily ensure a high standard of life.

The Russo-Japanese Relations
In such a milieu Japan manages its relations with Russia. The Russo-Japanese relations are a variable of the relations between Japan and America, between Japan and China et al.. The Russo-Japanese relations can not replace the Japan-US relations and Sino-Japanese relations. Yet the current level is not up to its potentials. For Japan Russia may work as a counter-balance to China, though its impact would be limited. And for Russia Japan’s cooperation is needed to develop its Far Eastern part, the population of which is merely 6 million as compared to 130 million in the adjacent provinces of China. As Russia attaches a great importance to hosting the APEC Summit meeting in 2012 in Vladivostok, Japan’s support would be indispensable for them. Furthermore, import of Japanese modern technology will be vital for the modernization of the Russian economy.

Japan has parted from the policy of “linkage” between the signing of the Peace Treaty (with definition of the postwar borders) and the development of economic ties. The volume of the bilateral trade has increased three-folds 2005~2007, and one after another Japanese companies are building their factories in Russia . Moreover, the import of oil and gas from Sakhalin has just started. Japan has invested a huge amount of money together with the Western companies like Exxon Mobile, Shell and BP (Japan’s share was more than 10 billion dollars) for development of Sakhalin oil and gas field. Import of liquefied natural gas may well reach 20% of Japan’s total gas import.

As regards the talks to decide the belonging of the four small islands off-shore Hokkaido, Japan’s northern-most island, the position of the Japanese government has been tenacious, though forward-going. Since the fall of the Soviet Union Japanese government has made several compromises. The Russian side, too, has been cooperative to Japan’s initiatives, deserting its past stiff and categorical denial of the problem.

I hope that the new President Medvedev, who attaches the utmost importance to judicial approach, will go over the history of this problem. The four islands were admitted as Japanese territory in the Shimoda Treaty in 1855, by which Japan and Russia established the diplomatic relations for the first time. Since then either Russia or the Soviet Union never raised protest or doubt about the belonging of the four islands to Japan. They were occupied by the Red Army toward the end of the war, and all Japanese inhabitants were deported without compensation.

The Allied Forces in the World War Ⅱ declared in the Atlantic Charter in 1941 that they fight the war not for acquisition of the adversaries’ territories. The Soviet Union later acceded to this Charter. Japan will continue calm but serious negotiation with the Russian government on this issue, simultaneously developing its ties with Russia in economy and culture. I hope that Mr.Medvedev as a good expert on the Roman law, which serves as basis of the Western concept of the property right, will bring some fresh air in the solution of this sixty years of quagmire.