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Japan Diary


June 2, 2010

Good, but... Hatoyama's resignation

Hatoyama is finally going out as prime minister. Good (though I voted for the Democratic Party last summer just for "Change"). He has done much harm to our position in Asia and vis-a-vis the U.S.
His vascillation about the Okinawa base was largely caused by the coalition partner, Social Democrats (die-hard remnants of the past pro-soviet Socialists), partly by his unresponsible advisers and partly by his own naivite about the U.S. He wanted to become "independent" from the U.S. by telling the Americans to go out and yet hoping they will come back for rescue in emergency.

He will go out for now, and Naoto KAN, finance minister, will probably become his successor. He does not look having a consistent strategic view, but at least will be more stable than Hatoyama.
But do not expect too much out of him. For example our contribution in the current Korean issue will be a limited one, because our law does not warrant the maritime self-defence forces to carry out inspection of foreign vessels.

Do not forget, either, that there will be an Upper-House election on July 11th. The ruling Democratic Party will probably fail to establish majority (the lack of majority in the Upper House forced them to go into coalition with Social Democrats). Speculation goes that Komei Party will become next coalition partner for the Democrats (Its support base is one of the largest buddhist sects. It is social welfare-oriented and pacifist, but without an ideologic flavor of the Social Democrats. Komei Party used to be a coalition partner of the Liberal Democratic Party government.).

Japanese society is still in the quagmire of domestic fight about who will get what from whom: Japan's economy has not grown for these 20 years, and in this zero-sum situation people has become nervous and jealous. That is partly why prime ministers cannot hold for long. Japanese media, which is rapidly losing advertisement revenue (younder generation rely on the Internet for news), tends to dramatize situation for their own survival.

(However, the life in Tokyo is very stable and looks even prosperous. Yesterday I was in town. Poche but inexpensive restaurants and bars were full of young businesspeople. )

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