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Japan Diary


August 6, 2007

Abe's defeat in the Upper House election

The result of the election(The Upper House election works as mid-term election. The Lower
House election is more decisive, because the Lower House chooses prime minister) was a disaster
for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. Mr.Abe apparently did not reckon with the
change in the society.

Mr.Koizumi drasitically cut down public work expenditure in order to restore financial stability,
which severely hit the economies in province, the traditional stronghold of his Party. Instead,
Mr. Koizumi mobilized support of the large city voters, who are usually volatile in picking up for
which party to vote.

This time Mr.Abe could not get support of either cities or provinces. The lobby organizations like
Physicians' Association or Post Union were so weakened by Koizumi reforms that this time they
even failed to have their representatives elected to the Upper House.

The Liberal Democratic Party had demolished its own basis of support (to revitalize the
ailing Japanese economy), and Mr.Abe had to "enjoy" all fruits of it
. He lacked the
charisma which Mr.Koizumi could use to hypnotize voters during the hardships of restructuring.

So, what will follow? The power will not easily move to the opposition, Democratic Party, because
Liberal Democratic Party enjoys the absolute majority in the Lower House, which is entitled to
elect Prime Minister.

The opposition would need to create a stalemate for Liberal Democratic Party, if it wants to go to
a general election. What kind of issue will serve for this purpose and when to resort to a lethal
gambit? We will keep our eyes on this.

Meanwhile, it is a great pity that our hands have been tied by the political turmoil, while a new
framework for security in Eastern Asia is being discussed by the US and other countries. Japan
should sort out its own problems as soon as possible to have its own position be reflected in the
on-going discussion.

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