http://www.japan-world-trends.com/en/ The author of this blog will answer to your questions and comments. And this is the only place in the world where you can engage in free discussion with people from English, Japanese, Chinese and Russian speaking areas. en Copyright 2010 Sat, 21 Aug 2010 22:55:24 +0900 http://www.sixapart.com/movabletype/?v=4.32-en http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss ]]> http://www.japan-world-trends.com/en/post_32.php http://www.japan-world-trends.com/en/post_32.php Sat, 21 Aug 2010 22:55:24 +0900 ]]> http://www.japan-world-trends.com/en/post_31.php http://www.japan-world-trends.com/en/post_31.php Sat, 21 Aug 2010 22:54:09 +0900 ]]> http://www.japan-world-trends.com/en/post_30.php http://www.japan-world-trends.com/en/post_30.php Sat, 21 Aug 2010 22:51:00 +0900 ]]> http://www.japan-world-trends.com/en/post_29.php http://www.japan-world-trends.com/en/post_29.php Sat, 21 Aug 2010 22:47:56 +0900 Yesterday the world media has reported that the Chinese GDP in the second quarter overtook that of Japan, finally becoming second largest economy in the world. However, that is not the case yet. In the second quarter the average value of the Japanese yen was 92 against one US dollar. Today the rate is 85 yens against one dollar, and the renminbi's rate is almost pegged to the dollar. This means that the Japanese GDP is still safely world number 2. But this is a childish saying, and sooner or later China will overtake Japan in volume (and not in quality). The Japanese are ready for that. In China's growth Japan has been making substantial contribution through her investments along with companies from the U.S. and EU, just as we together have been doing in ASEAN countries. I am glad that East Asia has thus become the moving force of the global economy. Japan will keep benefitting from it. Japan's task is to overcome the lack of her domestic demand and employment, as a large chunk of her production has flowed out abroad. I a 昨日世界のメディアは、今年第２四半期中国のGDPが日本を抜いたと報じたけれど、これは１ドル＝９２円強で計算した時の話。今日は８５円強のようだから、まだまだ日本as number 2の座は安泰。円をどんどん切り上げりゃ、中国は永遠に追いつけないかというとそんなことはなくて、日本経済がへたってしまうが。 慰めのために更に言う。きのう中国によく出入りしているロシアの友人と話したが、彼はこんなことを言っていた。 「日本の金融業は国際的には駄目ですが、製造業はなんのかんのと言っても強いんです。いつも製品を磨こうとしている。ところが中国人は、まるで野菜であるかのように工業製品を考えているようで、儲かるとなると皆同じようなものを「作付け」するので、生産量は上がりますがイノヴェーションは少ないんですね。それに中国人は日本人と違って、ボスがその場からいなくなると働かないんです。大丈夫です。日本の製造業は」 スパシーバというしかないが、この意見は僕の日頃の観察にかなり合っている。ただ中国の企業も、自動車のBYDのようにヴェンチャー出身のものは前向きの革新力を持っているので、こわい。もっとも中国のヴェンチャーは、大きくなるとお偉方が関与してきて、官僚の「死のキス」（活力を殺してしまう）をしてくれるので、そこは日本にとって安心なのだ。中国共産党万歳！ http://www.japan-world-trends.com/en/theses/japan/economy/the_chinese_economy_is_not_wor.php http://www.japan-world-trends.com/en/theses/japan/economy/the_chinese_economy_is_not_wor.php Economy Tue, 17 Aug 2010 10:23:59 +0900 As the Democratic Party of Japan was defeated at the last Upper-House election, Japan has again failed to produce a stable government. Naturally a question arises in your mind: can Japan generate a strong leaders at all, and is Japan able to manage a modern nation state? We used to have some anomalies like Nakasone and Koizumi, but besides them almost all leaders were the "consensus-types". Even before the Pacific War Japan was like that. Japan has a firmly entrenched radition of village community where egalitarianism and consensus-based decision-making prevail. When the Pacific War ended, the American occupation army imposed on the Japanese the American type of democracy. And it was amazingly quickly "assimilated" by the Japanese. It seemed so....... But the thing is that the Japanese invented a different type of democracy, which is strongly tinted with traditional collectivism and egalitarianism, which from time to time took even dogmatic tone. When people acted against these principles, they were solemnly told that they had violated "the democracy". "It is not democracy," they used to say. This egalitarian society was somehow held together by the governmental officials. When the U.S.attacked and weakened them, thinking that they were the ones who opposed necessary(for the U.S.) reforms in Japan, there was no one left to hold Japan together other than the populist politicians, who constantly get discredited by the people. Therefore foreigners, the U.S. among others, now have to confront themselves directly with the Japanese society. The Americans must have realized that it was not the bureaucrats who opposed refomrs and changes, but it was the Japanese society itself which opposed. http://www.japan-world-trends.com/en/civilization/why_japan_can_not_produce_stro.php http://www.japan-world-trends.com/en/civilization/why_japan_can_not_produce_stro.php civilization Sun, 01 Aug 2010 01:41:49 +0900 The "Economist" this week writes about the "end of progress", in other words the end of the limitless expansion of social benefits. I agree. As developed countries are now inversely treadding the process of industrial hollowing-out, they will lose the sector which has been generating wealth for them. And we, still living in all civic niceties created as a result of the industrialization, but with less revenue, will have to substantially change our way of life. I believe that two things require urgent consideration in this change. One is about the "paper money": will we be able to rein in the power of the printed money, the value of which was seperated from the gold's value in 1971? This "liberation" caused the oil price hikes in 1974 and 1979, the ensuing stagnation and the Reaganomics as a response to it. It is since 1971 the scale of the printed dollar circulating in the world has reached gigantic size, causing bubbles and their breaking-ups too often. The other is the need to drastically ax the social welfare system. Under the electoral system political parties tend to add one after another new benefit to please the voters. Now that the larger part of our industry is gone abroad, we can not afford this luxury any more. The most part of the social welfare system should be axed so that the well-off people take care of themselves and the government take care of only the needy and handicapped people. Saddly enough we may have to recognize that developed public social welfare is not a sine qua non for an advanced society. Paradigm has changed. http://www.japan-world-trends.com/en/theses/japan/economy/the_end_of_progress.php http://www.japan-world-trends.com/en/theses/japan/economy/the_end_of_progress.php Economy Wed, 28 Jul 2010 00:41:38 +0900 Lately I attended a seminar about the status of the Chinese society. One Japanese lady, a free-lance writer living in China, gave a very stimulating speech. She said that the middle class Chinese are becoming more independently-minded, and they do not fixate any more on the government. This tendency is visible especially after the Beijing Olympic games. This event brought the world closer to the people, and they realized that today's world is more modern than their old image about the world, in which big powers engage in cut-throat rivalry for dominance. So, this revelation may have lead to the recent tendency to engage in genuine (not manipulated by the government) NPO and volunteer movements. Before the people were inclined to blame foreign countries for any problems in their society, but today they have realized that China has its own endogenous problems, which they themselves have to tackle. Those are the terrible pollution and the problem of the poisoned milk, which recently became a national scandal. Many Chinese go to Japan with an open mind and eagerness to learn what is good in the mores and norms in the Japanese society. When the standard of life goes up, people stop engaging in the childish play, a remnant of the colonialism era: which country is stronger and better than which country. This phenomenon took place in post-war Japan, and even in the Soviet Union during the Perestroika era. In China recently workers in many factories stood up in strikes for pay-raise. It is striking to note that the strikes happen concurrently in many places all over the country. They are not orchestrated by the government, but the workers use mobile telephones (Chinese SNS is highly developed) to convey information to their comrades all over the country. All this may indicate that the gap between people's mind and the discourse of the government is widening. This gap will pose a serious problem for the governance of China. The official policy keeps addressing things which are remote from people's mind--this is no good for the government which used to be revolutionary. http://www.japan-world-trends.com/en/theses/the_world/china/sprouts_of_civic_norms_in_chin.php http://www.japan-world-trends.com/en/theses/the_world/china/sprouts_of_civic_norms_in_chin.php China Sun, 25 Jul 2010 15:05:44 +0900 After the demise of the Cold War we came to learn so many new categories of state--rogue state, failed state and even pariah state. Before it was much easier, because the Soviet Union was supposed to be all of them. Now we have to study each independent case. To make political science even more complex Japan proudly announces (for itself) a new type of state--a hysteria state, or to put it in Joseph Nye's style "hysteria power". When your beloved spouse suddenly becomes irrational and emotional, what can you do about it? Just divorce partner of your life? If not, then you will do everything to bring your spouse to sanity, offering liqueur and bonbons, won't you? Then it means that hysteria can generate power, by attracting attention and even care. Irrational behavior and thinking does not lower one's position in the world but on the contrary. Japan wants to be treated as equal by the U.S., not because she is doing lots of contribution for the maintenance of the world stability, but simply because Japan is Japan. Japan does not want to see foreign troops permanently based on its own territories, but she is firmly convinced that in case of emergency the mightly U.S. troops will rush to save her out of any danger. Japan's politics is very populistic. Its leaders do not lead, but they are led by the people. This is a democracy in its very extreme form. People do not want to pay more taxes, but they do want to receive more social benefits. Therefore, as the Japanese elite (The word "elite" itself is detested in the egalitarian Japanese society. Their layer is very thin, if any.) can not convince the people, the only choice left is to utilize our own irrationality as diplomatic weapon. Japan still matters in the world, and it can not be easily discarded by partners. So, change thy weakpoint into a insurmountable weapon to have your own way in the world. Watch out for a hysteria power! (Dear readers, please understand the degree of my despair about what is being done in my country) http://www.japan-world-trends.com/en/japan_diary/a_new_category---japan_as_a_hy.php http://www.japan-world-trends.com/en/japan_diary/a_new_category---japan_as_a_hy.php Japan Diary Sat, 24 Jul 2010 01:28:01 +0900 Chinese economy may be tapering off. There are reports about dwindling growth and growing inflation. Even after the Lehman Brothers' crisis China has fared well in its economy by boosting its domestic demand (via official expenditure, bank lendings and last but not least by inflating its statistics), but it may be hitting the limits. As in the case of England during the Industrial Revolution and Japan after the Pacific War, China realized its rapid growth by massive export. The income from the export was invested in real estates and construction of infrastructure, bringing its economy into a boom. But China's export has been low for recent two years and it is about time for the official expenditure and bank lendings to get out of breath (because of inflation fear). China has replaced Japan as the "World's Workshop". It would mean that when China becomes equal in economic size with Japan, its growth is destined to taper off, because after that point the Chinese export to the U.S. and the EU is not able to grow fast. If China's economy stumbles, then the real estate prices will collapse and banks will be flooded with non-performing assets (though in a socialist economy it is the usual way to simply ignore and shelve debts). Such a scenario will entail fall of Yuan's value, making their export eveb easier, but ensuing inflation will negate its effect by pushing up the production cost. It may be time now to quietly prepare for rescue measures of the Chinese economy. http://www.japan-world-trends.com/en/theses/japan/economy/can_china_overtake_japans_econ.php http://www.japan-world-trends.com/en/theses/japan/economy/can_china_overtake_japans_econ.php Economy Sat, 10 Jul 2010 23:12:31 +0900 Theory of relativity in cultural exchange (Below is the excerpts from my own speech at one conference on the role of cultural exchange in prevention and mitigation of conflicts) I for one used to be a diplomat posted in past West Germany, Soviet Union, Russia, the U.S. and Central Asia. In Russia I was in charge of culture and public relations with a view to create a favorable milieu for the solution of the "Northern Territory" issue. After early retirement I have been travelling mostly in Asia, which is now the most important arena for Japan's foreign policy. I also opened an international Internet site www.japan-world-trends.com (It is in English, Chinese, Russian and Japanese) for mutual communication among world opinion leaders and for their mutual understanding. It is my own small attempt to prevent conflicts arising from wrong perceptions and understandings. Today I will speak, drawing upon my own experience and observation. Relativity of the Concepts My first point is that the "state" is a man-made institution and may disappear at any moment. When I was posted in the Soviet Union, that country dissolved in front of my eyes in 1991 (my whole experience and observation at that time are crystallized in my epic novel, "Land of Legend...Land of Dream" published in Kindle, Amazon). The second fact is that the culture is also a relative thing. I am an avid lover of European classical music, and even when I was posted as Ambassador in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, deep in the exotic Eurasian continent, I made it a rule to listen to Wagner's opera in midnight. However, there was a small Uzbek private house side by side with my residence, and that family kept animals: cow, donkey and chickens. One night at the romantic climax of "Tristan and Isolde", the cow was annoyed by the noisy love music and mooed very loudly in disapproval of the Western culture. I was shocked. She taught me that Wagner is not a standard in Central Asia, that culture is a relative matter and that we have to be humble in conveying culture to others. Now let me expand myself on my points. (1) Relativity of the "state" Modern "nation state" was first formulated in England in the 17th century. It was above all a tool to collect taxes and soldiers, and thus to fight wars with France for colonies abroad. In today's warless society the nation state has become obsolete, and even tends to cause unneeded conflicts. On the other hand a modern state is prone to succumb to the populist pressure and to limitlessly widen the scope of social welfare to the point of un-sustainability. Therefore, the "nation state" may have become obsolete and we may have no need to continue to think and act in accordance with this category. Then the "cultural exchange", which presupposes the existence of nation states, may also lose its efficacy. Indeed, there are multi-national states like the U.S., which survive peacefully with various races in it but without official "cultural exchanges" among them. (2) Relativity of the culture and values--they change with development When a bloody conflict is over, a concert of classical music or exhibition of modern arts could bring a fresh air and rest in people's mind. But in underdeveloped and clan-based society such high culture would not be understood. Those people need recovery of their ordinary way of life, connections with the bosses and their "tradition". In such a society support for reopening of a village festival would be much more appreciated. I wonder to what degree our current schemes for cultural exchange and economic assistance can respond to such down-to-earth needs. There are many people in the West who allege that the values in the East and the West are so different that they will never find a common language. Other people point to the "historical enmity" between Japan, China and South Korea, saying that Japan will not be able to develop truly friendly relationship with the two others. But culture and values do not stay in one place. We have to depart from static approach, because society is a dynamic creature and it changes as economy develops. In Europe, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan economic and social development fermented the so-called civic values. An attempt to forcibly impose modern values on an underdeveloped country would not produce desired effects. Such an arrogant approach will destroy social orders, on which the people depend in up-keeping their daily life, and bring about unrest. The looks of the large cities in East Asia are drawing closer and closer. When you travel in this region, put up at a hotel, and look out the window in the morning, you sometimes cannot realize in which country you are currently staying. Architecture of the urban infrastructure and atmosphere which the people emanate have become identical. Younger people are dressed in a similar informal American way, and most of them are very open and look free. They think about their future and not so much about their past. It indicates that Japan, China and South Korea are able to cooperate with each other. By the way these changes in East Asia are well portrayed in the precious work by Japanese scholars, "Asia Barometer", which is a compilation of opinion surveys conducted (for more than five years) in major cities in East Asia (.https://www.asiabarometer.org/files/ABPS5.pdf#search='asia barometer') . (3) Relativity of the religions People tend to attribute unduly many things to religion. For example Central Asia, where I used to be posted as diplomat, is not well known in the world, but when people hear that the people in Central Asia are the Islam, they think that they have understood everything, imagining to themselves all negative human traits associated with the Islam. But the mind-set of the Central Asian people, authoritarianism, dependence, mutual suspicion and the lack of privacy, comes from not so much from the Islam, which came rather late to Central Asia, as from their long tradition and customs, underdeveloped zero-sum economy, where you have to depend upon your bosses, and the Soviet planned economy, where everyone had to depend upon the whim of the bureaucrats who monopolized all decisions. Religion is a reflection of the society where it grew. It will be a mistake, if we say that "Religion determines everything". (4) Relativity of the individuality Our discussion about cultural exchange seems to presuppose that all human beings are "individual" with articulate opinion and wishes. But in this world there are many societies where there are not such "individuals", and where people do not consider themselves as independent and individual existence. In such societies people live and die, simply performing pre-determined role as member of a family and as element in a clan structure. For such societies economic assistance would be more pertinent than "cultural exchange". Measures should be flexible in the world of relativity My discussion above shows that we cannot and should not find unequivocal meanings in such concepts as "state", "culture", "religion" and even "individual". All concepts have a wide range of meanings and they change with the time. Our efforts to establish a theory for the role of culture in prevention and solution of conflicts should take this simple fact into account. Probably we need to utilize the latest fruits of the "theory of complex system". I am not an expert of this theory, so I can say only that we need diversified and flexible approach in determining effective means to cope with our task. For example in developing countries our resources should be directed to education of teachers. I once visited a school in Tajikistan, to which our government gave funding for repair. The building was OK, but they had only one teacher, an old man in the village. If this "teacher" propagates his old negative convictions about the West, then our economic assistance ends up with helping reproduction of old society which hampered their growth. Therefore, as many as possible people in old societies should be exposed to the Western civilization (and not to its mere façade, but to its inner values). When a conflict ends in a developed country where intellectual level is high, big cultural events like concert and exhibition bring the people to themselves and encourage them. But in parallel with such "macro" approach, we also need "micro" approaches, for example constant consultation with local cultural activists and assistance to them. When we work on cultural exchange, we sometimes succumb to temptation to justify ourselves by organizing large-scale events. But just as today's advanced economy is shifting from mass-production to diversification, our job in cultural exchange can also be modernized a little, taking lessons from latest business methodology like marketing, production management and after-care. ]]> http://www.japan-world-trends.com/en/theses/japan/culture/cultural_exchange_in_the_world.php http://www.japan-world-trends.com/en/theses/japan/culture/cultural_exchange_in_the_world.php Culture Sat, 19 Jun 2010 18:52:54 +0900 So far so good---that is my feeling after the change in our government. Hatoyama's sleepwalking policy had paralyzed our policy, be it diplomacy, or be it economy. His last and biggest achievement was to clean up the Democratic Party (DPJ) from the influence of the leftist Social Democrats and Mr.Ozawa, the residue of the old Liberal Democratic Party. Kan's inaugural speech was a well-balanced one. He will consult welll with the government officials as well whom Hatoyama government made it a rule to overneglect and humiliate. For them the government officials are the ruling party and they are still in the opposition. But it is too early to seriously discuss Kan's policy ("Kan he do it, or kan't he?), because everything is now turning around the coming Upper House election on July 11th. After the double resignation of Hatoyama and Ozawa the approval rating of DPJ has risen to over 40. Now DPJ may well win the much-coveted majority in the Upper House (in the Lower House DPJ already enjoys overwhelming majority). So far it is more or less clear that Mr.Kan will attach priority to Japan-U.S. alliance as the foundation of Japan's security, and on this firm basis he is intent to develop most friendly relations with China. Kan will shelve the idea of the "East Asian Community", which Hatoyama touted very much without any concrete progress. More feasible idea with participation of the U.S.and China will be sought after with a view to bring the coming Summit meeting of APEC to a success (that meeting will be held in Yokohama under Japan's chairmanship). I feel that some solid ground is taking shape in the sea of uncertainty. Let us hope and work so that it will become a real one. Yes, we Kan. http://www.japan-world-trends.com/en/theses/japan/diplomacy/about_mrkan_our_new_prime_mini.php http://www.japan-world-trends.com/en/theses/japan/diplomacy/about_mrkan_our_new_prime_mini.php Diplomacy Mon, 14 Jun 2010 00:57:25 +0900 Hatoyama is finally going out as prime minister. Good (though I voted for the Democratic Party last summer just for "Change"). He has done much harm to our position in Asia and vis-a-vis the U.S. His vascillation about the Okinawa base was largely caused by the coalition partner, Social Democrats (die-hard remnants of the past pro-soviet Socialists), partly by his unresponsible advisers and partly by his own naivite about the U.S. He wanted to become "independent" from the U.S. by telling the Americans to go out and yet hoping they will come back for rescue in emergency. He will go out for now, and Naoto KAN, finance minister, will probably become his successor. He does not look having a consistent strategic view, but at least will be more stable than Hatoyama. But do not expect too much out of him. For example our contribution in the current Korean issue will be a limited one, because our law does not warrant the maritime self-defence forces to carry out inspection of foreign vessels. Do not forget, either, that there will be an Upper-House election on July 11th. The ruling Democratic Party will probably fail to establish majority (the lack of majority in the Upper House forced them to go into coalition with Social Democrats). Speculation goes that Komei Party will become next coalition partner for the Democrats (Its support base is one of the largest buddhist sects. It is social welfare-oriented and pacifist, but without an ideologic flavor of the Social Democrats. Komei Party used to be a coalition partner of the Liberal Democratic Party government.). Japanese society is still in the quagmire of domestic fight about who will get what from whom: Japan's economy has not grown for these 20 years, and in this zero-sum situation people has become nervous and jealous. That is partly why prime ministers cannot hold for long. Japanese media, which is rapidly losing advertisement revenue (younder generation rely on the Internet for news), tends to dramatize situation for their own survival. (However, the life in Tokyo is very stable and looks even prosperous. Yesterday I was in town. Poche but inexpensive restaurants and bars were full of young businesspeople. ) http://www.japan-world-trends.com/en/japan_diary/good_but_hatoyamas_resignation.php http://www.japan-world-trends.com/en/japan_diary/good_but_hatoyamas_resignation.php Japan Diary Wed, 02 Jun 2010 12:26:03 +0900 "The history of Europe started from ancient Greece and ended with contemporary Greece"--this may be the words that our descendents will learn in school. When I look at the Greek debt problem and the related sovereignty risk discussion about Spain and Portugal, I can not but feel that the world economic and political system is now reaching its limits. Intervals of financial collapses are becoming shorter and shorter--the IT bubble, the sub-prime mortgage bubble and now the "sovereign risk" bubble--as if the world economy is in the death pang. A financial collapse would not mean the end of economy; as long as the human-being want to consume goods and service, and as long as they are produced, the economy never ceases to exist. Nevertheless, if next financial collapse hits the real economy very hard, the world economy will drastically shrink, and we will have to start from a low point of possibly five to ten years ago. The coming collapse may be immense, because it involves the "sovereign risk". It may spread to the United Kingdom, the U.S. and Japan. Will it mean a total shift in the world order? Will the rule by the Europeans and the U.S., which has been continuing since the time of colonialism and the Industrail Revolution, come to an end? Or the economies of the BRICs countries will be hit even harder, bringing them back to the status of twenty something years ago? Even more importantly, has the democratic system, which has already changed into populism with permanently growing expenditure for social expenses and ever widening financial deficits, reached its limits? What is more, is the "managed currency system" with its paper money finally losing its efficacy, when the guarantor of its value, the state, is losing trust of the market? If so, even the Keynesian economic policy, that is bigger governmental expenditure during depression, will not be effective enough for saving out the economy. And if the managed currency system be replaced by something new, will it be the revival of the gold standard system? Probably not, because the gold standard system is prone to stem quick economic growth, and because it has a tendency to make permanent the gap between haves and have-nots. So, it is now a very crucial time to watch. Let us survive to witness perhaps the turning point of world history. http://www.japan-world-trends.com/en/theses/japan/economy/the_greek_crisis--perhaps_a_ha.php http://www.japan-world-trends.com/en/theses/japan/economy/the_greek_crisis--perhaps_a_ha.php Economy Mon, 17 May 2010 00:32:39 +0900 (View of Nara from Kasuga Hill, the place which so often figures in the ancient collection of poems "Man-you shuu" ) が何と言ってもよかったのは、ひなびたＪＲのローカル線で（まるでバスみたいに｢ワンマン」で、運転手が切符もきる）とことこ出かけて、南方の談山（だんさんではなく、たんざんなのだそうで）神社に行ったら、そこは中大兄皇子と中臣鎌足が蘇我入鹿暗殺の謀議をこらしたところで、日本国家で一大事が起きると鎌足の墓のある御破裂山（多武の峯）が鳴動、出た光は三笠山に至るとか、明日香にも近いそのあたりには三輪山を御神体にした日本最古という大神（おおみわ？）神社、さらにその近くには箸墓古墳があって、そこは卑弥呼の墓ではないかとも言われていたり、中国の五胡十六国・南北朝時代の混乱を経て隋、唐という大国が勃興するダイナミックな国際環境のなかで蘇我氏と聖徳太子一族の死闘から大化の改新を経て白村江の敗戦へと至る、血なまぐさい権力闘争のあとを実感として感じ、それに万葉集の歌の数々を重ねるともう、ロマンがうねり始める。 （藤の花咲き乱れる談山神社） 現地に行ってみると、飛鳥の里が今でも交通不便で、その南の吉野山系の懐に抱かれた要害の地だったのではないかと思えてくる。出雲かどこかの政権が昔熊野に上陸し、北上して大和朝廷を作った、という仮説があるらしいが、確かに飛鳥から真南に国道をたどっていくと、熊野川河口の新宮に至るのだ。東大寺の二月堂では三月にお水とりの儀式があるがhttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/33/Todaiji_Syunie_Nara_JPN_001.JPG、そこでは若狭の小浜（オバマ）市にある神社の井戸から水が地下を通って届くことになっていて、やはり大和朝廷は日本海側になにか関係があったようなのだ。 飛鳥、奈良は中国文化の影響一色の京都に比べると、朝鮮、ペルシャ、ソグド、インドとその関係は多岐にわたる。それらユーラシア諸地域の文明、文化は金、銀の鉱石の露頭のように、奈良の旧跡のそこかしこに露出している。薬師寺の薬師如来の台座には、ギリシャ風のぶどう模様、ペルシャ風の唐草模様、そしてインド・中国の神々が浮き彫りになっている。奈良はユーラシア文明の一部だったのだ。 そして、神社と寺院は融通無碍に合い交わり、談山神社のようにある時寺が政治的都合で突然神社になったり、東大寺のように鬼門を手向山八幡宮がまもっていたりする。春日大社には「社僧」がおり、読経もしていた（現地解説）。 そのあたり、宮司と僧侶も暮らしをたてていかねばならないわけで、目くじらを立てることもないだろう。 (ペルシャ文様を思わせる、春日大社灯篭のすかし） 夜満月を背景とした興福寺の五重塔、次の日も快晴で春日大社とその財宝、二月堂、東大寺と大仏といずれも印象的だった。そして薬師寺には、ついこの間亡くなった平山郁夫画伯の壁画がある。彼は生前珍しく、これは私のライフワークですというようなことを言っておられたから、今回見に行った。 よく見るシルクロード・テーマの作品を想像していったのだが、シルクロードはシルクロードでも、いつもの行儀よさをかなぐり捨てたような清新さ、大胆さになぜか泣ける思いだった。ああ、この人はここで全力を出している。思い残すことはないだろう。 須弥山と題したヒマラヤの山々が中央に位置する。そして天井は、シルクロード盛んなりし頃珍重されたアフガニスタンのラピスラズリ（現在では宝石としても名高い）の深い々々群青に金の星を散りばめた夜空で、吸い込まれるような幻想性を湛えていた。 （興福寺五重の塔に浮かび出た満月。何も見えないか） 外に出て昔の平城京の跡に行くと、復元なった（と言っても想像の産物ですが）第一次大極殿が真っ赤にそびえている。確かに大きい。そしてはるか向こうに朱雀門がたっているのだが、この１．５キロ四方ほどの土地全部が内裏だったというからたまげた。一般人（中産階級が当時いたわけでもないが）が住む右京、左京はその数倍にわたって広がり、真ん中の大通り朱雀大路のあった辺りには今、｢洋服の青山」が店を出している。 この平城京、近鉄で二駅以上もある東大寺まで続いていたことになっているのだが、多分譲成中の土地が多かったのだろうと思う。そして水があまり流れていない周辺の川では、住民の家から流れ出る汚水が悪臭を放っていたのだろう。「青丹よし、■■に臭う春の奈良」というわけ。 （談山神社にドラえもん現る） ちゃんとした文章はここまで。あとは今回、発見したことをぐだぐた並べる。 飛鳥、奈良はユーラシア諸文明のごった煮 仏像を守る武将には、basara将軍とかkubira将軍というふうにローマ字が書いてあった。これはサンスクリット語なのだろうが、バサラは鎌倉時代末期から跋扈するようになったアウトローの武士たちで、はでなかっこうで街を練り歩いては他人の妻をかっさらうなど悪さをしていた者たちのことも意味する。サンスクリット語の伊達者か。純日本的な現象と思っていたら、サンスクリット語か。 サンスクリット語と言えば、仏教の「真言」とはサンスクリット語で唱えるものなのだそうだ。中国ではこれを「呪」と呼んでいた。真理の言葉を呪文のように、秘儀として使っている。空海の持ち帰った真言宗以前から、そうだったらしい。今でも、卒塔婆に使うあの意味のわからない梵字はサンスクリット語のことだ。 （談山神社） 奈良国立博物館には、熱帯アジアからやってきた栴檀（センダン）の香木が陳列されている。そしてこれにはペルシャ文字、ソグド文字の刻印があるのだそうだ。漢字の刻印はないようなので、するとペルシャ人あたりが船で直接持ってきたものか？　飛鳥の石造物にはペルシャ文明の影響があると松本清張あたりが言っているので、ペルシャ人が当時の日本に来ていたとしても不思議ではない。 もう燃えてしまった法隆寺金堂の壁画の顔は、日本人のものではない。サマルカンドにあるアフロシアブ壁画の顔と、驚くほど似ている。仁王像なども、日本人、中国人より中央アジアのごっつい男たちによほど似ているのである。 平城京朱雀門の朱雀とは、フェニックスとかロシアの「火の鳥」に似た鳥だ。中国の意匠では、よく竜と対で使われる。竜とは蛇のことで、これはユーラシア全域、そして遠くメキシコにまで広がる蛇と鳥崇拝の表れなのだ。そして意匠と言えば、奈良から平安時代にかけての日本の美人画はおかめのようにふっくらした女性をイメージしているが、このやや日本人離れした顔は唐の美人画のそれにまたそっくりなのだ。 奈良時代の歴史によせて 大化の改新から白村江での敗戦に至るころの日本は、唐や新羅と大変な緊張関係にあったのだが、それでも中臣鎌足転じて藤原鎌足は、長男を唐に留学させている。この長男は仏教をおさめて帰国するのだが、すぐ死んでしまい、一家の実権は弟の不比等に握られた。 （東大寺へ向かう土塀） 奈良平野は南北に非常に長い。大和朝廷は、この大平野の生産力をうまく組織した都市国家程度のものから出発したのだろう。それが覇を唱えるようになったのは、鉱産物があったか（古代ギリシャのアテネも、近郊で銀山が発見されて急に強くなった）、それとも税制、灌漑、軍事のいずれかで優れたものを持っていたためか？ （東大寺の大仏） 現地の解説によれば、奈良の南、「山の辺の道」を通って至る三輪のあたりには、海柘榴市（つばいち）といって日本最古の市場があったそうな。ここまで大和川が来ていて、この川は大阪湾に出ている。そしてそこには難波津が作られ、税関の役割も果たしていたらしい。奈良方面へは大和川でさかのぼったのだ。日本は古来、東アジア世界のなかで開けていて、鎌倉というと山奥の秘境という感じが今でもあるが、鎌倉時代、逗子沖に和賀江島という人工島（今では満潮時に水没）が作られていてhttp://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%92%8C%E8%B3%80%E6%B1%9F%E5%B3%B6、南宋の船が来ていたようだ。 三輪にある大神（おおみわ）神社は、日本最古の神社だそうで、三輪山自体を御神体としている。ちなみにここは「三輪そうめん」の本場で、そうめんを棒につるして乾かしたあとの、棒で曲がった部分だけをポリ袋につめ、「そうめんのはじ」と銘打って沢山売っている。いったいどうやって食べるのだろう？　 日本最古の神社があるくらいなので、付近にある古墳「箸墓」を卑弥呼の墓と見立る向きもある。Wikipediaでは、宮内庁により第7代孝霊天皇の皇女、倭迹迹日百襲姫命大市墓（やまとととひももそひめのみことおおいちのはか）として管理されており、研究者や国民の墳丘への自由な立ち入りは禁止されている。倭迹迹日百襲姫命とは、『日本書紀』では崇神天皇の祖父孝元天皇の姉妹である。ほとんど神話の領域だ。 日本についてはよく「二重権力」の存在が指摘される。天皇と将軍のように。大和朝廷も武力で作られたものだろうが、平安時代からは天皇は権威を象徴するだけの存在となり、実権は「時の権力者」が行使する体制になった。江戸時代になると将軍の地位も空洞化して、実権は侍官僚たちがふるい始める。「権威を与えるもの」と｢実権をふるう者」の連立――それが日本での権力のあり方のようなのだ。世界にも珍しいのでないか？ （春日大社、鹿の天国）]]> http://www.japan-world-trends.com/en/charm_of_the_ancient_capital_o.php http://www.japan-world-trends.com/en/charm_of_the_ancient_capital_o.php Sun, 16 May 2010 23:39:00 +0900